All-In Podcast

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis

E238 • Aug 10, 2025 • 111 mins

The episode begins with introductory updates and a discussion on various topics. The release of ChatGPT-5 is explored, focusing on its economic and energy implications. The conversation shifts to AI dominance, emphasizing the rule of law and the centralization of authority, examining the government's role in fostering innovation. Economic concerns are raised, touching on energy subsidies and the rise of socialism. Geographic mobility and tariffs are discussed, followed by a segment on smuggling NVIDIA GPUs and Apple's approach to stock buybacks and innovation. The episode concludes with entertainment recommendations and information about the upcoming All In Summit.

Key Points

Apple's massive $700 billion in share buybacks over the past decade has sparked debate over whether they should have invested more in R&D and new products.
The tariff policies under President Trump have raised significant revenue but face scrutiny over their long-term economic impact and potential unintended consequences.
Despite efforts to control the flow, smuggling of high-value GPUs into China is rampant, highlighting the challenges in enforcing export controls on critical technology.

Speakers

Jason Calacanis

Host • 36%

David Friedberg

Host • 13%

Phil Deutsch

Guest • 17%

Gavin Baker

Guest • 17%

Ben Shapiro

Guest • 18%

Chapters

0:00	Bestie intros! Gavin Baker, Ben Shapiro, and Phil Deutch join the show
7:32	GPT-5 underwhelms, benchmark saturation, OpenAI's product excellence
18:14	AI's TAM, ROIC, and energy implications
27:27	China's major advantage and how the US can counter it
43:46	Political parties picking winners, energy subsidy reversal, how the bureaucratic branch was created and how to fix it
52:38	Socialism, OBBB impact on energy, does socialism in the US rely on Mamdani in NYC?
1:10:00	Tariffs update: $125B+ revenue so far, India and Switzerland hit hard, Trump's ad hoc approach
1:27:51	Nvidia chips being smuggled to China
1:31:13	Apple's $700B in buybacks since 2015 and failing AI strategy
1:40:09	Summer reading recommendations

Transcript

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