Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

Nate Silver joins Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg to discuss California's ballot counting issues, focusing on late-mail surges, ballot harvesting, and why the U.S. lags behind India in counting speed. They dive into the Democrats' internal struggles, examining the divisions between the left, abundance liberals, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base. The conversation shifts to the 2028 election strategy, highlighting anti-oligarch messaging and demographic shifts. They explore how algorithmic social media fuels polarization and offer predictions for the 2026 midterms. The episode concludes with a look at Newsom's declining poll numbers and Silver's 2028 bet on AOC.